What should Patriots fans watch for in Week 16 as it relates to the team’s draft order position and scenarios?
Let’s break it down.
The Patriots have a good chance to move up to No. 2.
The easiest way for the Patriots to move from No. 3 to No. 2 in the first-round draft order is to lose to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday on the road and have the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
The Patriots are heavy underdogs to the Bills, and given how amazing Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is playing, it would be pretty shocking if New England pulls off the upset. The Raiders aren’t great, but they have a favorable matchup against McJones and the Jaguars. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) model gives the Raiders. 55.9% chance to beat the Jaguars.
The Patriots could also move up to No. 2 if the Raiders lose but the Giants win their game against the Falcons. Even though the Falcons are giving rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. his first career start, ESPN’s FPI still has Atlanta 63.4 percent chance of beating New York.
It’s possible for the Patriots to move up to the No. 1 pick, but that would require a loss to the Bills, along with wins by both the Raiders and Giants.
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Giants in Falcons: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on FOX
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Patriots in Bills: Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
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Jaguars at Raiders: Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Why Top Two Picks Matter
There could be a big difference in value between the No. 2 and No. 3 picks this year, and that’s because there are only two quarterback prospects — Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shadvar Sanders — in the 2025 class. Top Pick-Five Picks That could change in the coming months, but right now, this is a very weak QB class.
The Patriots don’t need a quarterback because it looks like they already hit a home run with May Pick. But in terms of trade value, it’s much better to have one of those two picks and be able to give another team a chance at a franchise QB. The No. 3 pick will still have value, especially if teams want Colorado WR/CB and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, but it’s not worth the top two picks because of the quarterbacks. Will be.
Teams are more likely to trade for a potential star quarterback than a highly rated wide receiver or cornerback. For example: In the last 10 drafts, zero wide receivers and only two cornerbacks were taken with top-three picks.
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That’s why it would be great for the Patriots if the Raiders and/or Giants win at least one more game. If these three teams lose, the highest the Patriots can draft is No. 3. The Patriots need one more win by the Giants or Raiders to move up.
What are the odds the Patriots go No. 2 or higher? Very good, according to ESPN’s FPI, which projects the Patriots with a 23.6 percent chance of landing the No. 2 pick as well as moving to the No. 1 spot.
Updated No. 1 Pick Prediction!
Raiders fans are asking why their chances are so slim.
FPI thinks that’s largely because the Giants are more likely to lose (36%) than the Raiders (11%). That’s because it makes the Giants look significantly worse than Las Vegas, and it also… pic.twitter.com/QynBDFYLwM
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 17, 2024
The last time the Patriots had a top-three pick in back-to-back drafts was in 1993 (Drew Bledsoe, No. 1) and 1994 (Willie McGinnist, No. 4).
Summary
The best-case scenario for the Patriots on Sunday is a close loss to the Bills.
It is important for May to play well and show improvement in key areas for the team as a whole. New England has to force more turnovers, cut down on penalties, protect Maye better, create a more consistent pass rush, etc.
But the scoreboard is what really matters. Another win in the final three games has the potential to move the Patriots down a couple in the draft order, and that could have a really negative impact on the team’s offseason.
If you’re a Patriots fan looking to get a better look at the team’s draft pick position this weekend, here’s who you’re rooting for:
