Photographs by Sergey Belski-Imagn
NHL salary increases. But when there is more cap space, players and their agents adjust their expectations accordingly. So even if the roof he jumps up with a starting cap hit of $92.4 million for the 2025-26 season, that likely won’t make it easy for GMs to agree on arbitration-eligible free agents.
Last season, the players in that category faced different results. After filing for waivers, Martin Necas agreed to a two-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes that would take him to free agency at the age of 27, and he came out of the gate as one of the NHL’s best players. Meanwhile, Jeremy Swayman opted out, sparking a conflict that lasted until the regular season before he and the Boston Bruins settled on an eight-year, $8.25 million per season deal.
Based on their current salaries, the top four RFAs eligible for compensation this year are all defensemen of the same age, and three of them play in New York state. All four were first-round draft picks, and all are in the final year of bridge contracts that saved their teams some money during the flat-cap years but could cost them now.
More recently, Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar and Adam Fox were all signed to long-term deals outside of their entry-level contracts – and they all went on to win Norris Trophies.
Will we see any of the four extended this season – or sold if it looks like the financial expectations of both sides are unlikely to match?
Here’s a look at where each stands now:
Noah Dobson – New York Islanders – Year 3 of 3 at $4 million AAV
Selected 12th overall in 2018, Dobson turns 25 in January. Dobson has scored double digits in goals in all three of his full NHL seasons thus far. He came up with 70 points in 2023-24 while logging 24:31 a game, earning a handful of Norris Trophy votes.
This season, he is still logging more than 24 minutes a game. And by saying The Natural Stat Trickhis numbers are better than ever. At 5-on-5, he controls 54.77 percent of expected goals and over 62 percent of dangerous goals. His offensive production is down, with just 19 points in 34 games, and the Isles’ 32nd-ranked power play is a big part of that. Dobson is taking more shots than ever and took his fifth of the year against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday.
Evan Bouchard – Edmonton Oilers – Year 2 of 2 at $3.9 million AAV
When Evan Bouchard took over the Oilers’ power play after Tyson Barrie was traded at the 2023 trade deadline, his ‘Bouch Bomb’ point quickly entered the hockey lexicon.
Bouchard’s 82 points last season were fourth among defensemen and included 18 goals, and he picked up his game when the going got tough in the playoffs, with six goals and 32 points in 25 games.
He ranked two spots above Dobson at No. 10 in 2018, Bouchard is the oldest of the four players on this list, turning 25 in October. It’s off to a slow start with 25 points in 33 games for him Expected goals share at 5-on-5 is down a bit from last season, though it’s still an outstanding 58.84 percent.
The Oilers are now on a roll, with an 8-2-0 record in their last 10 games, so Bouchard’s numbers are likely to rise. If he isn’t extended at the end of the season, his new contract could take up almost as much bandwidth as Connor McDavid’s new deal in the Oil Country.
K’Andre Miller – New York Rangers – Year 2 of 2 at $3.872 million AAV
Amidst all the drama surrounding the Rangers, Chris Drury managed to sign Alexis Lafreniere and Igor Shesterkin to new long-term deals. That leaves K’Andre Miller as the team’s last major contract.
Or, will Miller find himself in a new home soon, as Drury continues to shake up the chemistry of his dysfunctional team?
He was drawn 10 spots behind Dobson at No. 22 in 2018, Miller also turns 25 in January. His role has been somewhat muted, averaging north of 21 minutes a game and peaking at 30 points last season. But before he was injured on Dec. 11, Miller was past 50 percent expected goals are controlled at 5-on-5 for the first time in his career.
Bowen Byram – Buffalo Sabers – Year 2 of 2 at $3.85 million AAV
The youngest of the four players on this list, Byram is arguably the most interesting.
He’s the only one with a Stanley Cup, picking up nine points in 20 playoff games with the Colorado Avalanche in 2021-22.
He was the top pick of all time, selected fourth overall in 2019. He is the youngest as he will turn 24 until next June. And now that he’s put his early injury woes behind him (hit on wood), Byram is arguably one of the four players on this roster that doesn’t rotate.
Even if the Buffalo Sabers can’t buy a victory, Byram’s 18 points in 34 games tied his career high, and he’s over 23 minutes a game. In a struggling team, he boasts that expected goals 47.07 percent share at 5-on-5, an improvement of more than six points from his 18-game showing with the Sabers last season.
Like Miller, Byram is left-handed. At 205 pounds, he’s also the second heaviest on the list behind Miller (210 pounds), though he’s the shortest of the four at 6-foot-1.
As the losses continue to pile up in Buffalo, the Eagles are circling to see if they can pry Byram away from the Sabres’ roster. If another GM can find him, he will have to open his wallet to keep him.
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